الزراعة والإقتصاد الوطني

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Executive Summary:
these plans had a limited success in achieving their objectives. The main reasons for the frustration of the agricultural development plans are: the low priority assigned to agriculture in the allocation resources, lack of political stability, the top-down approach to development which reduced rural producers to policy-receivers rather than producers in the policy making process, and the weak administrative and implementation capacity of the government machine. Two important recent developments have made focus on agricultural and industrial development an urgent issue:  The advent of oil as a major source of public revenue and export proceeds. Oil revenues constitute 50% of public revenue and 85% of total export proceeds. The risk of dependence on oil is very high because of its highly volatile international prices and because of the fact that it is nonrenewable resource.  Accession of the Sudan to the WTO necessitates increasing the productivity of the agricultural sector and improving its competitiveness in local and international markets. Recently, the Sudan has taken a new and strategic direction to support agriculture. This new direction is manifested in the declaration of "The Green Mobilization" and the preparation of the Five-Year Strategic Plan. In continuation of this thrust, a high committee under the chairmanship of His Excellency, the Vice President, Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, has been formulated to study the present status of agriculture and articulate a future vision and action plan for Agricultural Revival. The committee which consisted of a number of distinguished persons concerned with the sector's development, including politicians, executives, researchers, producers, farmers' and pastoralists' unions, NGOs, private sector, civil society organizations and manufacturers, has put together a fully integrated programme that constitutes a national strategy for the Agricultural Revival as well as a compass for correcting the current programmes and plans of ministries and institutions in the center and the states, in addition to establishing a monitoring and follow-up system for assessing the results and impacts of the programme. The programme is based on the following nine key indicators of success:  Creating an appropriate atmosphere for a sustainable development of agricultural production.  Capacity building of producers and institutions.  Addressing the issues of agricultural lands.  Developing support services.  Development and modernization of agricultural systems.  Protecting and developing natural resources  Agricultural industrialization  Implementation of quality control and safety measures  Establishment of international partnerships. A number of programmes have been formulated to address these components for realizing the desired transformation. The most important features of these programmes are as follows: First: The executive programme for Agricultural Revival has defined the macro and sectoral policies for creating an appropriate atmosphere for achieving agricultural and agricultural-led industrialization as well as setting a time-bound programme for execution in addition to defining the implementing entities. Second: The programme defined the infrastructure conducive for agricultural development focusing on the following:  Water harvesting programmes, dams, hafeers in rainfed areas due to its significant importance for the stability of the ways of living of farmers and pastoralists, in addition to increasing production and productivity and providing drinking water for humans and animals.  Building agricultural rural roads, crossing points, bridges and Irish bridges which facilitate the movement of people, animals, products and agricultural inputs.  Establishing state-based primary cattle, vegetables and fruit wholesale markets. In addition, quays for cattle and plant products would be established at standards that meet quality and safety criteria. Laws and regulations will be issued for these markets to organize their work, taking into account marketing, storage and export facilities such as grain silos, quarantines, slaughterhouses, cooling, packaging, classification, and grading services to ensure marketing efficiency of agricultural and animal products. Third: The programme includes projects for capacity building of producers and institutions, namely:  Realizing qualitative transformation of producers through raising their productive efficiency in using modern technologies as well as developing their administrative capacities.  Completing institutional reforms including the transformation of producers' unions to qualitative unions which place the issues of productivity and sustainable agricultural development at the top of their priorities. Fourth: The programme proposed addressing land issues aiming at encouraging agricultural investment and sustainable land use through:  Registering the agricultural land and defining the citizens', villages' and groups' rights.  The rest of the land will be registered under government ownership and made available to investors.  Setting equitable rules for land lease and rent and reviewing existing relevant laws. Fifth: The programme focused on the development of the supporting services through:  Enhancing and developing hydrological, plant, animal and industrial scientific research through building capacities, training of researchers, as research constitutes the spearhead for realizing the Agricultural Revival.  Enhancing the capacity of technology transfer and extension services using the village as a center for providing services and agricultural knowledge, in addition to introducing and adopting successful technologies aiming at increasing the productivity and improving the quality of products.  Rectifying agricultural education curricula and focusing on technical and technological education.  Enhancing the capacity of information and informatics institutions by providing them with up-to-date technologies and conducting the basic surveys particularly the comprehensive agricultural census (plant and animal). Six: The Programme emphasized the development and upgrading of agricultural systems through:  Raising the efficiency of the existing irrigated schemes by upgrading irrigation management and systems, rationalizing water use, developing field irrigation, crop intensification, and integrating plant and animal production with conservation of forests, range and pastures.  Introducing modern types of animal and fishery production such as intensive rainfed and irrigated pasture farmer and ranches, aquaculture, as well as establishing wildlife reserves. Seventh: The programme targeted the protection and development of natural resources through the following:  Developing forests and pastures as well as restoring the vegetative cover.  Combating desertification  Developing the gum arabic belt.  Establishing reserves and preserving wildlife. Eighth: The programme included significant interventions to develop agriculture-based industrialization, including the utilizing of the idle capacities of the agro-industries. Ninth: The programme underscored the importance of establishing international strategic partnerships with a view to transferring technologies, training, capacity building, expanding and developing markets. Tenth: This programme is intended to create a conducive atmosphere for mobilizing the whole community and encouraging its participation in the agricultural activities, noting that the programme gives a greater support to the private sector capabilities by empowering it to play a greater role in the implementation of the programmes. Eleventh: The programme recommended establishing agricultural commodity development councils (plants and animals) as a successful instrument used by many commodity-dependent countries for realizing the integration of the different activities in the commodity production and marketing chain through bringing together all the stakeholders concerned with the commodity in the areas of research, training, production, marketing, manufacturing, consumption and export. The programme also proposed functions and powers for these councils and some guidelines for their work. Twelfth: The programme included a supervision and follow up mechanism chaired by H.E. the Vise President, in addition to a High Council for Agricultural Revival, and a General Secretariat responsible for mobilizing and following up revival programmes and projects including the commodity councils. Thirteenth: The total cost of this programme during 2008 – 2011 is estimated at 10.1 billion SP: 2.4 billion SP for 2008, in addition to 2.5 billion for 2009, and same amount for 2010, and finally 2.7 billion SP for 2011. It is noteworthy that the contribution of the government constitutes 1.36 billion SP in the year 2008, (approved in the budget) and the cost required in 2009 is estimated at 1.34 billion SP and decreases to 1.1 and 1.0 billion SP in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Fourteenth: Investing in infrastructure is given top priority at 39.4% of the developmental appropriations allocated for the programmes and projects during 2008, followed by food security, poverty reduction and rural development at 34.4%. developing and protecting natural comes in the third place at of 9.8% then comes the support services on the fourth place and the export infrastructure comes in the fifth place at 7.5% and 6.6% respectively. Capacity building, improving and upgrading agricultural systems and commodity councils take the rest of the appropriations. Fifteenth: The total finance of programme amounts to 2905.15 million SP during 2008 and will rise gradually to reach 3422.74 million SP in 2011. This includes governmental contribution, foreign, bank-lending and self-financing in addition to the agricultural season's subsidies. Total government financial contribution is estimated at 1279.4 million SP in 2008 and will decrease to 764 million SP in 2011 (from 44% to 22%). Foreign finance, including grants and loans to agricultural project from regional and international finance institutions will increase from 286 million SP to 385 million SP (from 9.9% to 11.1%). Finance by commercial banks will increase at an annual rate of 25% from 800 million SP to 1560 million SP (from 27.5% to 45.6%). Agricultural subsidies will decrease, with the improvement of infrastructure and supporting services, from 208 million SP to 120 million SP. Financing from farmers' own resources will increase from 540 million SP to 720 million SP (from 18.6% to 21.0%) during the same period. Self-financing may perhaps exceeds these estimates since the increase in productivity resulting from the implementation of the programme will improve the productive capacities of the producers to finance their agricultural activities. Sixteenth: The programme is expected to achieve tangible results, most significant of which is the development of the farming systems and the generation of job opportunities in the agricultural sector, the agriculture-led industrial sector and the related service sectors. By introducing participatory methods of natural resources management, the programmes will also ensure sustainable use of these resources and reduce conflicts over them. Consequently the country will be able to reach self-sufficiency in those crops in which it enjoys a competitive edge, namely sorghum, millet, fruits and vegetables, oil seeds, livestock products, poultry and fish. Enough raw materials will also be produced to satisfy the existing idle capacity in the agro-industries. Seventeenth: In terms of import substitution the realization of self-sufficiency in wheat will be a significant achievement of the programme. The value of wheat produced is estimated at US$ 1.15 billion. The present import bill of US$ 599 million will turn into a surplus of US$ 36 million by 2011. In the case of sugar, the deficit will decrease from US$ 84 million in 2007 to US$ 51 million in 2011 in spite of the expected increase in the population and the changing patterns of consumption towards sugar-based products as a result of increasing urbanizations. The increase in the production of these commodities will be an outcome of the package of key agricultural and livestock projects and the incentives which will be offered to investors. Eighteenth: In the area of export promotion, the country will produce a minimum surplus of 2.4 million tons of sorghum annually. The current surge in the prices of cereals and the preferential prices paid by the Saudi Government to importers of cereals open windows of opportunity for export of sorghum. Similarly, exports of sesame are expected to increase from its current level of US$ 174 to US$ 360. Export karkade and watermelon seeds are expected to reach US$ 52 million, while groundnuts exports are expected to earn US$ 615. Proceeds of exports of fruits, vegetables fodder, and gum arabic are also expected to increase. In the case of cotton the expected increase in demand and prices in the international market will induce a greater supply through the increase of the area planted in the irrigated and rainfed sectors. Cotton export proceeds are expected to amount to US$ 884 million. All in all, the total export earnings of all crops is expected to reach US$ 4.5 billion in 2011 as shown in the annexes to this report. Nineteenth: The export proceeds of the livestock sector are expected to increase from an estimate of US$ 274 in 2008 to US$ 635 million in 2011 (excluding boarder trade). The export proceeds of cattle, sheep, goats and camels will increase from US$ 11.8 million, US$ 141.3 million, US$ 5.2 million and US$ 33.6 million in 2008 to US$ 129 million, US$ 276.4 million, US$ 12.8 million and US$ 48.5 million in 2011 respectively. The export proceeds of fish, tauna and shrimp will increase from US$ 4 million, US$ 10 million and US$ 30 million in 2008 to US$ 10 million, US$ 30 million and US$ 60 million in 2011 respectively. The exports proceeds of hides and skins will increase from US$ 38.9 million in 2008 to US$ 68.4 million in 2011. 1. Introduction The sustainable use of the huge and diverse agricultural resource potentials in the Sudan with a view to enhancing the welfare of its people has been a great hope and a moving target since the time of independence. These resources are envisaged, not only to meet the domestic requirements for food security, employment and foreign exchange earnings but also to enable the Sudan to contribute significantly to regional and international trade and food security. However these expectations have yet to be fulfilled, pending a real breakthrough to achieve a comprehensive agricultural development. Taking the political, economic and social development of the Sudan into perspective, it is imperative that these resources be utilized earnestly to achieve a comprehensive agricultural development. Agriculture is the source of income and livelihood for the rural people, the engine of growth for the other economic sectors such as trade, industry and transport. The ultimate results of agricultural development would be the generation of job opportunities, rendering the rural areas more habitable, reducing poverty and striking a balanced distribution of the benefits of development between the different states and localities through giving more attention to the least developed ones. The advent of the petroleum era in the Sudan, since the turn of the last century, and the negative phenomenon which accompanied its exploitation underscored the necessity and urgency for emphasizing the development of the agricultural and industrial sectors. Now petroleum resources constitute 50% of public revenue and 85% of the foreign export earnings. Heavy dependence on petroleum involves serious risks to the Sudanese economy because of the fluctuations in its international prices and because of the fact that it is a none-renewable resource liable to depletion. In addition, investment of oil revenues in urban development, if associated with the neglect of the agricultural sector, leads to rural exodus to the urban sector. Taking these developments into consideration, the government must undertake urgent and serious actions to bail out the Sudanese economy from the distortions inflicted upon it by the current petroleum policy. These actions should aim to ascertain agriculture and industry as the leading sectors of the economy. This strategy necessitates prompt actions designed to increase the efficiency of the agricultural sector and agriculture-led industries with a view to enhancing the competitiveness of Sudanese commodities in local and international markets in preparation for accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Mindful of all these facts and developments, the Government of National Unity (GNU) committed itself to the strategic option of achieving sustainable agricultural development. An evident expression of this political will is the declaration of the "Green Mobilization" in 2006 and the adoption of the Strategic Five-Year Plan (2007-2011). For further strengthening and development of this thrust, the Council of Ministers issued its Resolution No. 173, 2007 for the formation of the High Committee for the Study of the Current Situation in the Agricultural Sector and the Proposal of Appropriate Visions for its Future Development. The high committee is formed under the chairmanship of his Excellency, Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, the Vice President. The committee is entrusted to come up with practical and executable visions, taking into consideration the Green Mobilization and the five-year Strategic Plan as main references. 2. The Methodology for the Preparation of the Executive Programme for the Development of the Agricultural Sector The membership of the High Committee is comprehensive involving all stakeholders concerned with the development of the agricultural sector including politicians, executives, producers, university professors, researchers, private sector, civil society organizations, farmers' and pastoralists' unions. The methodology adopted by the committee to fulfill its terms of reference was as follows: (a) Formation of five specialized subcommittees to prepare comprehensive reports covering all issues specified in the TOR. The committees were:  The committee for diagnosing the current situation in the agricultural sector.  The committee for analyzing the crop mix and the requirements of food security and export.  The committee for increasing productivity.  The committee for agro-based industrialization  The commodity concerning polices supporting agricultural development. (b) Holding intensive meetings for the High Committee with all its members at the Secretariat of the Council of Ministers to discuss the following:  The visions and proposals focusing on reforming agricultural policies and programmes.  The drafts of papers prepared by the five subcommittees. (c) Using the objectives and programmes of the Green Mobilization and the Strategic five Year Plan as the basic references. (d) Review of successful experiences of agricultural development in several countries including China, Malaysia, Brazil, South Korea, India and Vietnam. (e) The programme gives priority to those projects which benefit the majority of the people in the rural areas such as water harvesting projects which can give quick results within a short period of time. Another approach to distribution of the benefits over the whole rural sector is the programme concerned with the commodity developments. This programme aims at developing the rural sector through increasing productivity, increase value added and improve marketing of eighteen major commodities on which rural communities in the different parts of the country depend. (f) Formation of a committee for drafting the main report. This committee drafted the main report and identified the programmes and projects which formed the executive programme for Agricultural Revival in the country. The executive programme is considered an advanced consolidated version of the Green Mobilization document. In the final analysis, this programme is the national strategic plan for agricultural development. It is the reference for the correction and streamling of the programmes and plans of the ministries and corporations at the federal and state levels. It involves a system for monitoring and evaluation. 3. Diagnosis of the Existing Situation in the Agricultural Sector A diagnosis of the current situation in the agricultural sector is made using the SWOT analysis. This approach explores the weaknesses and strengths in the performance of the sector, opportunities for development and the threats involved. 3.1. Strengths:  Vast agricultural lands suitable for cultivation.  Huge livestock resource potential and a sizable reservoir of fish resources.  Water resources from rainfall, rivers and underground aquifers sufficient to meet the requirements of the livestock population, fishery resources and raising of different crops and increasing the areas under forests and pasture.  Generations of trained manpower capable of leading the process of agricultural development.  A strategic geographical location which facilitates the marketing of agricultural and livestock commodities in the regional and international markets.  Commitment and a political will for equitable and sustainable socio-economic development.  The adoption of the federal system of government encouraged the participation of local communities in national development programmes.  Improvement of infrastructure such as roads, communication technologies, electricity, silos, quarantines and abattoirs helps promote free market mechanism and send signals to producers to increase products coming to the markets and increase productivity.  The distribution of faculties of agriculture all over the country will provide trained manpower in all areas of specialization required by the programme. 3.2. Weaknesses (Opportunities for change)  Low levels of productivity to all factors of production  Producers are trapped in traditional systems of production resulting in underdevelopment and weak technical, managerial and financial capacities of the producers.  The existing infrastructure are not commensurate with the requirements of the agricultural development.  Inadequacy of the procedures which control the quality of products, and sanitary and phytosanitory measures which safeguard food safety.  Lack of strict measures to apply regional and international agreements on capacity building and enforcement of standards. This jeopardizes the competitiveness of Sudanese products in local and international markets.  Out-dated systems of production in the agricultural sector due to absence of a holistic vision of agricultural development.  The preparation of agricultural plans lacked the scientific and operational approaches. For instance, projections of production and exports lacked precision and were often exaggerated.  Lack of application of the recommendations of the research findings.  Lack of coordination of policies between the various resource users.  Weak research and extension services and shortage of improved seeds.  Lack of capacity to produce agricultural inputs locally.  Weak linkages between stakeholders deprived local communities of the opportunity to participate in policy making and to reap the benefits of a balanced rural development.  Deep-rooted rivalries between professional and trade union organizations hampered the cooperation needed for optimal use of agricultural resources. 3.3. Opportunities:  The current economic stability, reflected in a single digit inflation rate and a stable exchange rate provides a conducive climate for investment in the agricultural sector.  The realization of peace and security, following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)will encourage settlement in the rural areas and avails resources for the development of the rural sector.  The increase in oil production and revenue provides an important source of financing rural infrastructure and agricultural inputs.  The production of oil and its by-products paves the way for the development of agro-chemical industries in the country, namely fertilizer and insecticides industries.  The change towards an open economy creates a conducive environment for going into partnership with the international community, especially sister and friendly countries and investors in general. These partnerships will help in the transfer of technology, training and access to niche markets for high value and organic products.  Public awareness of the fact that agriculture is the main source of rapid and balanced growth has increased dramatically.  Utilization of the share of the Sudan in the Nile waters efficiently and effectively.  Application of water harvesting technologies on a large geographical scale.  Utilization of forward and backward linkages between agriculture and industry.  The strategic location of Sudan in Africa and the Arab World and its proximity to Europe makes it a potential centre for agricultural trade. 3.4. Threats:  The policies, institutions and procedures which control financing are not suitable for financing agricultural producers, especially smallholders, nor is it appropriate for financing infrastructure.  Climatic changes resulting in fluctuations of production and productivity.  85% of the animal resources depend on pastoral and transhumant systems of production, which render the provision of services and the transfer of technology needed for improvement difficult.  Trade barriers established by developed countries to protect their producers limit access to their markets.  The continuous deterioration of natural resources has a negative impact on the settlement of livestock producers and the development of the national herd. It is also associated with insecurity and tribal conflicts over resources. 3.5. Analysis of the Political, Economic, Social and Technological Environment: The most important national, regional and international factors affecting agricultural development are:  The political stability and security resulting from the implementation of the CPA has induced economic stability resulting in a higher rate of growth, low inflation rate and the creation of an environment conducive to a balanced and sustainable development based on agriculture.  The favourable geographical location of Sudan in Africa and the Arab World and its membership in the African, Arab and international organizations qualify it for an important role in regional food security  Agriculture is the main sector for the Sudanese economy and the main source of income and livelihood for 70% of the population.  The development of the agricultural sector ensures general peace, food security and settlement of people in the rural areas, and it is the easiest and most effective means for poverty reduction.  The phenomena of poverty, tribal conflicts and the claims of marginalization are evidences of the poor performance of the agricultural sector. 4. Preparation of the Strategy The strategy for agricultural development consists of the following components: 4.1. The Vision: A comprehensive national socio-economic development led by a dynamic agricultural sector capable of rapid and sustainable growth and biased towards the weak and vulnerable sectors of the population. 4.2. The Mission: The overall mission of the agricultural development strategy is to transform agriculture from a sector dominated by subsistence production to a modern sector responsive to market signals and with substantial contributions to poverty reduction, growth, foreign exchange earnings and sustainable management of natural resources. This mission will be fulfilled through:  Creating the environment conducive to sustainable development of agricultural productivity and production through the implementation of conducive macro and sectoral policies which promote investment, developing infrastructure for water harvesting and irrigation storage capacities of the Nile waters, building feeder roads, establishing livestock routes and providing marketing infrastructure.  Building the capacities of producers through reforming their institutions, increasing their productive and managerial capacities.  Resolving the land tenure issues which discourage optimal use of large areas in the irrigated and rain-fed sectors.  Improving the agricultural support services including the development of the agricultural research, technology transfer and extension services, agricultural education, establishment and upgrading of markets, strengthening of information and communication technologies, adoption of measures of risk aversion and expansion of agricultural insurance services.  Developing and modernization of agricultural systems with a view to increasing the efficiency of utilization of resources through increasing crop intensity, improving marketing efficiency, value addition through processing and introduction of new systems of livestock and fishery production, including irrigated farms and wildlife reserves.  Protecting natural resources through the development of forests, pastures and range lands and re-establishment of the vegetative cover and the development of the Gum Arabic Belt and the combat of desertification.  Building the capacities of the industrial sector to manufacture agricultural inputs, satisfy agro-industries with their requirements of raw materials, link the production processing – marketing chain and utilize the ideal capacities in the agro-industries.  Protecting consumers and promoting exports, by implementing the laws and procedures which ensure food safety and control of the quality of plant and livestock products, whether processed locally or imported, in accordance with the accredited international standards  Going into strategic partnerships with a view to realizing the economies of scale, benefiting from new technologies, and getting access to international markets and financial institutions. 4.3. Strategic Objectives  Promotion of exports of crops and livestock with a view to safeguarding against the risks of collapse of the whole economy as a result of the distortions emanating from over-dependence on oil revenues.  Increasing productivity and efficiency at the production and processing stages.  Realization of food security.  Reducing poverty to 50% by 2015, generation of job opportunities and increasing per capita income.  Achievement of a balanced growth in all regions of the country with the view to encouraging settlement in the rural areas.  Development and protection of natural resources to ensure its renewal and sustainability. 5. Key Factors of Success The achievement of the agricultural revival will rest on the following nine success factors:  Creation of an environment conducive to production.  Capacity building  Land use  Support services  Development and modernization of agricultural systems  Protection and development of the natural resources  Agricultural industrialization  Implementation of quality control and safety measures  Strategic partnerships 5.1. Conducive Production Environment A conducive environment for increasing production and productivity consists of concerted macro and sectoral policies, sustainable management of natural resources and establishment of adequate infrastructure. 5.1.1. Macro and sectoral policies These policies should aim to achieve the following objectives:  Adequacy, stability and sustainability of growth of the sector and the economy as a whole.  The important role of the financing sector in mobilizing resources to the agricultural sector.  Availability of domestic and international financial resources and expansion of agricultural insurance in terms of beneficiaries, geographical areas and farming systems.  Elimination of policies which have distortive effects on production and trade.  Equitable distribution of the benefits of agricultural revival between the states.  Achievement of food security and poverty reduction.  Sound and sustainable management of natural resources Matrices A through S present the policies which must be implemented so as to prepare the ground for the intended agricultural revival.